Bradford Lyttle

The Flaw in Deterrence Bradford Lyttle

The probability of nuclear war Nuclear deterrence is the main foundation of United States foreign policy, and the foreign policies of all other nations with nuclear arsenals. Deterrence is the idea that, if our nuclear weapons are powerful enough, and indestructible, no nation will attack us because they will be afraid that our military response will annihilate them. This line of thinking is what political philosophers call "game theory," which, in turn, is part of "rational choice theory." Game theory assumes that foreign policy is controlled by "rational actors." According to game theory, nuclear deterrence will work forever, because it will always be irrational for any person who controls nuclear weapons to use them in a "first strike" attack on another nuclear power. Nuclear deterrence will not work forever, but, rather, will result in catastrophic accidents with nuclear weapons and nuclear war. This is because it involves continually risking the catastrophe that it is intended to prevent. It ignores the scientific principle that, Probability is a function of time. That principles is as sound as the Law of Gravity, Ohm's Law, and many other scientific laws. In fact, it is sounder than most, because it is based more on eternal mathematical principles than on statistical analysis of what has happened in the past. This book is an exposition of these ideas, and why they imply that it is rational for all nations that possess nuclear weapons to immediately deactivate them, regardless of what other nations do. In the nuclear age, the human species must develop non-lethal, non-violent ways for resolving conflicts, or it will destroy itself. The author invites everyone to critique these ideas, and email him at blyttle@igc.org, about errors they believe that they may have found.