Probabilistic Coastal Vulnerability Assessment to Storms: Application to the Coast at North-east Aegean Sea (Thrakiko Pelagos), Greece

A probabilistic vulnerability assessment to the impact of storms in the coast of Thrace, Greece was carried out. From the existing dataset, the return values of the hazards? (i.e. inundation and erosion) for characteristic return periods were estimated, using the Reis and Stockdon equations to calculate the run-up and the numerical model SBEACH to calculate the erosion. Aim of these estimations was to compare the difference between each hazard magnitude with the corresponding geomorphologic parameter (i.e. beach height and width, respectively) in order to characterize the vulnerability of the coast against each hazard and for each return period. The obtained results along the coast reflect the relative variation of the hazard magnitude in function of the beach morphology, which is mild-sloped and low beaches presenting the largest values for inundation, while the steeper and narrower ones are the most sensitive to erosion. Finally, an integrated vulnerability assessment was presented and some possible recommendations to mitigate the problems were given.